Stocks go up in the long run, so there's nothing to worry about, right?

Between 2000 and 2002 the NASDAQ lost two-thirds of its value. We are told to ignore short term fluctuations, after all, stocks go up in the long run. So in a few years we will forget this nasty interlude, right? Stocks do go up in the long run--but only half the time. Stock Cycles covers 200 years of stock market history to show that stock returns are cyclical. Half the time, such as 1982-2000, the stock market moves strongly upward. The other half, like 1966-1982, stocks go nowhere for years. Based on P/R, a novel valuation model, it is likely that the market peak in 2000 was the beginning of the downside of the cycle, and that an index fund purchased at year 2000 levels will underperform money market funds for the next 20 years. The stock cycle is a consequence of the Kondratiev cycle. The Kondratiev Cycle covers 800 years of economic history to shows how this cycle is intimately involved in the evolution of the economic, political and social trends of our time. Investing in a Secular Bear Market picks up where Stock Cycles let off and charts a course for the progress of the secular bear market that began in 2000. Cycles in American Politics describes the cyclical political interactions that today drive both the Stock Cycle and the Kondratiev Cycle.

See article at Dow Business News

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